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Commercial Construction Index

Issue 6
FOURTH QUARTER 2013


Private and Public
Nonresidential Construction Recovery Remains Sporadic
The U.S. economy has now entered its sixth year of economic recovery. During the fourth quarter of 2013, the U.S. economy expanded again, this time at a 3.2 percent annualized rate. 2013 will not go down in history as a great year for the U.S. economy, and tax increases, sequestration, and a still sluggish global economy are all partially to blame for this result. That said, economic momentum developed over the course of the year and 2013's final six months were reasonably encouraging.


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Private and Public Nonresidential Construction Recovery Remains Sporadic 1

Joe's View - Insights from Marcum's National Construction Industry Group Leader 2

Exhibit 1. Nonresidential Construction Spending, March 2009 through December 2013 - GRAPH 2

Exhibit 2. Construction Employment Growth in the 20 Largest US Metropolitan Areas, December 2013 v. December 2012 - CHART 3

Fourth Quarter 2013 Performance - CHART 4


Issue 5
THIRD QUARTER 2013


Private and Public
Nonresidential Construction Continues Sluggish Growth
The U.S. economy has now entered its fifth year of economic recovery. During the recently completed third quarter, the U.S. economy expanded again, this time at a 2.8 percent annualized rate – well ahead of expectations. This GDP release, however, represents the last piece of information regarding U.S. output and nonresidential fixed investment that is untouched by the federal government shutdown in October and the most recent debt ceiling debate. Of course, September economic activity could have been impacted by rising uncertainty as the October 1st budgetary deadline approached.




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Private and Public Nonresidential Construction Continues Sluggish Growth 1

Joe's View - Insights from Marcum's National Construction Industry Group Leader 2

Exhibit 1. Nonresidential Construction Spending, March 2009 through July 2013 - GRAPH 2

Exhibit 2. Construction Employment Growth in 20 Largest US Metropolitan Areas, August 2013 v. August 2012 - CHART 3

Third Quarter 2013 Performance - CHART 4


Issue 4
SECOND QUARTER 2013


Private and Public
Nonresidential Construction Exhibits Ongoing Lack of Momentum
The U.S. economy has now entered its fifth year of economic recovery. Second quarter gross domestic product surprised to the upside, expanding 1.7 percent on an annualized basis despite many forecasts indicating that the second quarter estimate would come in at less than 1 percent. Despite a macroeconomic context associated with a booming stock market and sixteen consecutive quarters of economic expansion, nonresidential construction continues to manifest a decided lack of spending momentum.




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Private and Public Nonresidential Construction Exhibits Ongoing Lack of Momentum 1

Joe's View - Insights from Marcum's National Construction Industry Group Leader 2

Exhibit 1. Nonresidential Construction Spending, March 2009 through June 2013 - GRAPH 2

Exhibit 2. Construction Employment Growth in 20 Largest US Metropolitan Areas, March 2013 v. March 2012 - CHART 3

Second Quarter 2013 Performance - CHART 4


Issue 3
FIRST QUARTER 2013


Nonresidential Construction
Recovery Restrained by Public Funding
The U.S. economy outperformed expectations during the first quarter, led by a combination of rising stock prices and household wealth, an improving housing market, steady auto sales and engaged consumers. Admittedly, expectations coming into the quarter were low given increased taxes and what turned out to be legitimate concerns regarding sequestration. According to preliminary estimates, the economy expanded 2.5 percent on an annualized basis during 2013's initial three months, much better than the 0.4 percent annualized growth posted during 2012's final quarter.




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Nonresidential Construction Recovery Restrained by Public Funding 1

Joe's View - Insights from Marcum's National Construction Industry
Group Leader
2

Exhibit 1. Nonresidential Construction Spending, January 2009 through
March 2013 - GRAPH
2

Exhibit 2. Construction Employment Growth in 20 Largest US
Metropolitan Areas, March 2013 v. March 2012 - CHART
3

First Quarter 2013 Performance - CHART 4


Issue 2
FOURTH QUARTER 2012


Nonresidential Construction
Sector Flat in Fourth Quarter
The combination of electoral uncertainty, fears of a fall off the fiscal cliff, a sharp decline in defense outlays and negative adjustments to inventory produced a shrinking U.S. economy during last year's final quarter. Real gross domestic product decreased 0.1 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter, ending a growth streak for the U.S. economy that spanned 13 quarters. Overall annual economic growth tallied 2.2 percent in 2012, following a 1.8 percent annual increase in 2011.




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Nonresidential Construction Sector Flat in the Fourth Quarter 1

Joe's View - Insight's from Marcum's National Construction Industry Group Leader 2

Exhibit 1. Monthly Nonresidential Construction Employment, January 2009 through December 2012 - GRAPH 2

Exhibit 2. Architecture Billings Index, December 2007 through December 2012 - GRAPH 2

Fourth Quarter 2012 Performance - CHART 3


Issue 1
THIRD QUARTER 2012


Nonresidential Construction's
Recovery Has Stalled
During the third quarter of 2012, the U.S. economy expanded for a 13th consecutive quarter. Unfortunately, nonresidential construction has not been among the economic segments experiencing meaningful recovery. While the broader economy expanded at a 2 percent annualized rate during the third quarter, due in part to ongoing consumer spending growth, nonresidential investment declined 4.4 percent on an annualized basis following a modest 0.3 percent gain during the second.




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Nonresidential Construction's Recovery Has Stalled 1

Joe's View - Insight's from Marcum's National Construction Industry Group Leader 2

Exhibit 1. Monthly Nonresidential Construction Spending Growth, October 2009 through September 2012 - GRAPH 2

Exhibit 2. Architecture Billings Index, December 2007 through September 2012 - GRAPH 2

Third Quarter 2012 Performance - CHART 3

 


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